Drought Outlook
Numerous applications project drought conditions at a variety of time scales. Here are some resources and how the Texas Water Development Board uses them.
- One-month outlook: We use this Climate Prediction Center site to see temperature and rainfall projections over the next month. There are also other projections that extend out as far as 12.5 months, though accuracy wanes significantly when looking at projections beyond three months.
- U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook: We use this site for Climate Prediction Center projections on expected drought conditions one month out.
- Projected drought: We use this tool to assess the severity of drought conditions in the upcoming month.
- Worst-case drought and rainfall needed to come out of drought: We use this tool to assess the worst drought that could occur over a given time span (such as one month or six months) if no rain falls through the end of that period. We also use the tool to assess how much rainfall is needed to come out of such a worst-case drought and the odds of that happening over the period of interest.
- U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (three-month outlook): We use this site to see a projection by the Climate Prediction Center on expected drought conditions three months out.
- Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: We use this site to see what the outlook is for the hurricane season.
- Current tropical weather: We use this site to see what the outlook is for the hurricane season.
- El Niño/Southern Oscillation Outlook: We use this site to assess the likelihood of El Niño (cooler and wetter Texas winters but suppression of tropical systems) or La Niña (warmer and dryer Texas winters) conditions. Figure 6 in the outlook shows a spaghetti chart of different statistical and dynamical model projections as well as averages from those models.
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation: We use this site to see the status of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which refers to long-term fluctuations in sea surface temperatures between the western north Pacific Ocean and the Pacific coast of North America. A PDO “negative” or “cool phase,” when warmer than normal sea surface temperatures prevail in the western north Pacific Ocean and cooler than normal sea surface temperatures prevail off the Pacific coast of North America, is generally associated with higher temperatures and lower rainfall in the summer over Texas. A PDO “positive” or “warm phase,” when cooler than normal temperatures prevail in the western north Pacific and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures prevail off the Pacific coast, is generally associated with lower temperatures and higher rainfall in the summer over Texas.
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: We use this site to see the status of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which refers to long-term fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the northern Atlantic Ocean. Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the northern Atlantic Ocean are generally associated with higher temperatures and lower rainfall in the summer over Texas, as well as more tropical systems turning into hurricanes in the Atlantic basin but fewer tropical systems moving into the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall over Texas.
- Wildland Fire Outlook: We use this site to determine where wildfires might be an issue in the near future.